Unintended Consequences
Here’s why it never pays to ignore any team in baseball, even one as lowly as the Rockies: it’s a small, closed community. Reputations matter, and folks have very long memories indeed. What am I talking about? Well, remember the three-way Orioles-Red Sox-Rockies deal that fell apart on Boston’s end way back in July? At the time, it was reported that it was Boston assistant GM Josh Byrnes (now GM in Arizona) who was at fault for promising Colorado Kelly Shoppach and Adam Stern for Larry Bigbie. Now according to ESPN.com’s Sean McAdam, Sox CEO Larry Lucchino was simply using Byrnes as a scapegoat. It was the higher-ups who made Byrnes and GM Theo Epstein pull out of the deal, and at the time Byrnes was the one who had the least to lose by taking the blame. In conversations with Colorado’s management and the local media, Lucchino threw Byrnes under the bus so that Epstein’s reputation might remain clean enough for him to continue dealing with Colorado and the numerous organizations who hold Dan O’Dowd’s word in high esteem.
Now Epstein is leaving his job with the Red Sox, and the reason according to McAdam might have something to do with Lucchino going one too many times to the well on the Shoppach story. After once deflecting blame towards Byrnes to help Epstein, Lucchino’s purposes were now served in his negotiations with Epstein over a new contract to make the young GM look bad. So Lucchino spread a story about his stepping in to save face for Epstein, Theo got wind of it, and basically said, "That’s it." He’d had enough. The younger generation of baseball minds — the Epsteins and Paul DePodestas — have very little use for the P.R. games the wily old guys like to play. They’re in it to win baseball games, or at least they thought they were.
Apparently Theo Epstein will take a year off to do social work with his brother, and good for him if that’s the case. There are things more important than winning all the time, things more important than always seeming to have the upper hand. You have to wonder if Larry Lucchino appreciates that.
1/2 Chac
The dice are feelin’ the pitchers so far, I tell you what. Today I rolled Ramon Ramirez, one of the two relief prospects Colorado received from the Yankees in the Shawn Chacon trade. I didn’t expect very much from either Ramirez or his cohort Eduardo Sierra, so frankly I haven’t looked at their stats all year. Was I right to be so dismissive?
Well, according to the early returns on Ramirez…yes. The righthander started the season as a starter with AAA Columbus, where he gave up 32 hits and nine walks in 27 innings. That "earned" him a demotion to AA Trenton, where he continued to start and was 6-5 with a 3.84 ERA and an improved 1.28 WHIP. He reported to Colorado’s Tulsa affiliate 7/28 and worked as a swingman. His ERA jumped back up to 5.33 (coincidentally the same number it had been in Columbus) and his WHIP trended back upwards. He’s in the Arizona Fall League playing for Peoria, again as a swingman, and he’s been no better, posting a 7.53 ERA in seven games (one start). The AFL is a notorious hitters’ league but his WHIP is back near 2.00 and that’s not good anywhere.
The good news about Ramirez is he’s not super old (24) and wherever he goes, he strikes guys out when he’s not getting pounded by them (a composite 8.27 K/9 on the year). Sporadically effective righthanded middle relievers, however, are just about the least valuable commodity in baseball. I haven’t looked at Sierra’s numbers yet (the dice haven’t told me to), but unless he’s pitching like Felix Hernandez the Rockies got out and out rooked by NYY.
Update: Tracy Ringolsby says that Colorado could be a possible landing place for ousted Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta. One word: yes. Do this! I promise, adding DePodesta’s player evaluation acumen to O’Dowd’s respected old-school scouting skills would do more to make the Rockies better than any possible free agent player signing you might care to name. Pull the trigger on this one, Dan! We Rockies fans accept that we don’t sign superstar players any more, so give us a superstar front office guy.
Here Comes the Sun
Today the dice say we’re going to look at Sun-Woo Kim, but first, a few words on the Dodgers’ firing of general manager Paul DePodesta. According to owner Frank McCourt this move is an attempt to restore order to a franchise that’s been largely in disarray the past few seasons, but it’s likely that it will only set off another volley of power struggles. The timing is peculiar, too. McCourt let DePodesta fire Jim Tracy, a good manager, because the two had ideological differences. If you’re going to fire DePo anyway, why not try to keep Tracy? The other alarming thing is that venerated Dodger relic Tommy Lasorda has apparently recaptured the owner’s ear. Lasorda doesn’t want to come out of retirement to serve as manager or GM, but he does apparently want to choose who will fill those positions, from which no good can come. If Tommy gets the next Los Angeles management team their jobs, it only stands to reason that he will expect them to always take his advice as well. McCourt and only McCourt should make the decision — as he seemingly did with DePodesta, only to dramatically flip-flop.
Paul DePodesta only ran the Dodgers for two years. One of those years, they won a division title. This year, they managed to stay in contention (sort of) with an injury-ridden team that had only Jeff Kent, Oscar Robles, and eighteen guys named "Jason." OK, it shouldn’t come as any surprise that J.D. Drew, DePodesta’s big offseason signing, got hurt. But can you really criticize the man for declining to pay Adrian Beltre $64 million to be less valuable than So Taguchi? Or for trading notorious first-half player Paul Lo Duca for much-needed starting pitching? Whatever you want to make of DePodesta’s big league moves, you can’t judge a GM’s overall impact in just two years. You can’t make a judgement on any of the guys DePo drafted in that short a time. For what it’s worth, the farm system’s overall ranking from Baseball America went up from 14th in Dan Evans’ last year (2003) to 2nd last preseason.
But if the Dodgers want to fire their young, dynamic guys and bring in retreads (Lasorda wants Pat Gillick and Bobby Valentine), that’s their business. The Angels, who have been better run for a while and now also spend more money, will continue eroding their fanbase. Hey, it took Kenny Williams a few years to figure out what he wanted to do and get the guys he needed to do it. How long will the Dodgers get before Gillick "retires" again, then tries to run the franchise from the shadows as he attempted in Seattle? This all comes as great news for the Rockies, as a divisional rival with a glorious history, superior resources, and better-looking uniforms has basically defused itself for the rest of the decade. Right on.
Okay then. Sun-Woo "Sunny" Kim was picked up off waivers from Washington in August and was pressed into starting duty immediately for the makeup doubleheader against Florida August 8th. Kim had been pretty bad for the Nationals predominantly in a middle relief role but as soon as he got to Colorado his ERA began to trend downwards. How about that? Pretty much all of his stats improved upon joining the Rockies, including K/9 (6.41 from 5.22) and opponents’ OPS (.728 from .853). I don’t think this indicates that Kim possesses Reverse Coors ability so much as he just prefers starting to relieving. Thanks to injuries and Jamey Wright’s sublime Jamey Wright-ness, Kim got to start for most of the balance of the season. He stayed good, peaking with a complete-game shutout win over the Giants at Coors on 9/24.
Kim, now 28, was signed out of South Korea by Boston in 1997. The Red Sox traded him to Montreal for Cliff Floyd in 2002, and he moved with the Expos when they became the Nationals. There’s no accounting for why Sunny found pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium not to his liking (although public questionings from the cantankerous Frank Robinson likely did not help matters along) and acclimated so well to Coors, but now that he’s here let’s enjoy it. He’s still in his arbitration period and should be a cheap, and therefore very appealing, rotation option for the Rockies. He’s better than Mike Esposito, in any case.
The prospect guides aren’t real excited about Kim’ raw stuff, although he does mix a bunch of pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change) and must be doing something right as his strikeout rate is consistently decent. If there’s one red flag in Kim’s career, it’s the inconsistent usage pattern, which could be either the problem or a symptom. He’s likely to get a crack at a fourth starter spot with the 2006 Rockies, assuming he doesn’t utterly crater in spring training. There are worse options, and for a team working on a budget such as Colorado’s you have to be both creative and lucky to win. It didn’t cost them anything to pick up Kim beyond the price of a waiver claim, and he’ll make so little that they won’t hesitate to let him go as easily as they brought him on. Kim isn’t going to work super-deep into games regularly, but he’s not afraid of Coors and he has a clean injury history. His dicey record as a middle reliever decreases his flexbility, but let’s hope that’s a bridge we won’t have to cross.
Cooking
Welcome to the TGTBATB’s 2005 offseason coverage! We’ve got plenty of time between now and Spring Training, so I figured we’d just go down the 40-man roster. I didn’t have any particular feeling as for where to start, so I just rolled some percentile dice (if you know what percentile dice are, pat yourself on the back and give yourself one nerd point). I got a 4, which corresponds to Aaron Cook. That’s lucky, because it means we’ll start our look at the 2006 Rockies with a guy who ought to be the MVP of the pitching staff next year.
Before we crunch the numbers on this very good pitcher, though, a news item about a very bad one: the Rockies confirm interest in signing Shawn Estes, most recently of Arizona. There’s not much point in spending a lot of time on this. Shawn Estes is lousy. He’s not worth the veterans’ minimum, let alone whatever seven-figure salary some stupid team will lavish upon him. Let’s not be that team, OK? Here’s a rule of thumb for Colorado with regard to free agent starters. Is he better than Mike Esposito? Esposito will work for cheap and is not terrible. Shawn Estes is not better than Mike Esposito.
Hopefully, that unpleasantness is now behind us for good. On to Aaron Cook. Cook’s line from last year: 7-2, 101 hits, 16 walks, 34 earned runs, 8 home runs, and 24 strikeouts in 83 1/3 innings pitched. Other than his first major league start of the year 7/30 against the Phillies, Cook was consistently the ace of the Colorado staff. The Rockies were 9-4 in his starts. Cook was never a big strikeout pitcher, but the key to his success in 2005 was control amazing for a player who missed nearly a full season.
Many experts say the secret to pitching at Coors Field is having stuff that sinks, and Cook has a sinker that’s good at any altitude. When everything is working, his groundball to flyball ratio is more than 3 to 1. Aaron allows more than his fair share of hits (.301 opponents’ BA in ’05) but the combination of not giving up free passes, keeping the ball in the park, and coaxing double plays out of hitters led to a very respectable 3.67 ERA. Cook was actually slightly better at home (.750 OPS allowed) than on the road (.801). He must feel more confident at Coors, as he walked more than twice as many batters on the road as he did at home.
Never before in the history of the Colorado Rockies has there been a starting pitcher you could in good confidence recommend to a fantasy baseball owner. Well, next year, that all changes. Aaron Cook isn’t going to win a strikeout crown, but his ERA will be strong and he could easily win 16 games. His injury was both freak and not arm-related (Cook had a rib removed to improve his circulation). The only thing to worry about is for a guy who gets so many ground balls, the Colorado infield defense could stand to be a whole lot better.
Offseasonal
Well, that was a fun month seeing how the other half lives (or to be more accurate, the other four-fifteenths). Now that the World Series is completed and a new champion has been crowned, it’s time to get back to the business of contemplating Colorado Rockies baseball. Will we be better in 2006? Well, regression to the mean suggests that it’s so. The simple fact that Colorado has a ton of young players helps too, as in general players tend to improve somewhat each of their first several years in the league. There’s always the health issue — the Rockies weren’t just untalented in ’05, they were also rather unlucky on the injury front. Name a good player that Colorado had the rights to at some point during last season, and there’s a good chance he spent considerable time on the disabled list. Here I am talking about Todd Helton, Shawn Chacon, Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Jason Jennings, Preston Wilson, and of course, Clint Barmes.
Here’s a link you should all bookmark: the complete list of potential 2006 free agents. There are 206 of them, although at least a few (Roger Clemens, for example) are "free agents" in name only. This list includes Mike DeJean, who has already resigned with Colorado. There are very few exciting names here, and we’ve talked already about how paying millions for players with skill sets easily matched by minor league free agents is a poor use of resources indeed. There are a ton of ex-Rockies on the list if you examine it closely, which just goes to show how many lousy journeymen have briefly moved through Denver in their careers.
So how about our rookies? A FOXSports.com piece written from a fantasy baseball perspective is universally negative on the sophomore years of Garrett Atkins, Barmes, J.D. Closser, Jeff Francis, Hawpe, and Cory Sullivan. Probably fair. Barmes didn’t get to prove whether he could sustain worthy starting shortstop stats all season because he got hurt, and he was pretty bad after his return. Francis really lost steam in the last third of the season, although as a Rockies pitcher he’s pretty much automatically disqualified from fantasy consideration anyway. The rest of these guys, nationally at least, are perceived as placeholders or platoon players. I think Brad Hawpe if healthy has a good chance to be at least a league average starter, and you know I believe in Barmes, but Atkins and Sullivan are going to have to make big leaps. Closser’s Rockies career is pretty much over, which is too bad — I still think he could have learned to play a little defense if they’d just let him play.
Since we have plenty of offseason to work with, we’re going to start going down the whole Rockies 40-man roster as it stands right now and look at each guy’s contract status, future prospects, and ultimate role. I haven’t decided where to start yet so if you have a favorite Gen-R baller, speak up for him. Many of the other Rockies blogs are doing similar work right about now, so I encourage you to peruse the "regular hits" roll over there to the left. Apparently Danny Ardoin has his supporters. Who knew? Personally if I had my pick of the World Series catchers I would take bad-fielding, good-hitting lefty A.J. Pierzynski over great-fielding, non-hitting Brad Ausmus any day of the week. But if there is anything this postseason has proved it’s that there is no one formula to success. (Also, the Chicago defense at short, center, left, and third was fantastic. Perhaps the Rockies should play three OBP/speed centerfielders and try to get home runs from their infielders?)
Update: With the playoffs over, the Denver papers are writing about the Rockies for the first time in weeks. The Post breaks down Colorado’s plans on the free agent market. Apparently the budget for signings in $9 million, which is considerably less than the money the team is saving not paying Shawn Chacon, Joe Kennedy, Preston Wilson, Denny Neagle, and Charles Johnson. Colorado will concentrate on signing relief pitchers, which seems somewhat reasonable considering how tight the markets for position players and starters are going to be. Oh, but here’s some names to get excited about: Elmer Dessens, Jay Witasick (again), Scott Eyre, and Nate Field.
O’Dowd also would like to trade for a lefty specialist — J.C. Romero and Damaso Marte are mentioned. Marte is intriguing, a talent who’s fallen out of favor with Ozzie Guillen in Chicago. Marte was the last man out of the pen in Game 3 of the World Series, and Guillen had so little faith in him that he had starter Mark Buehrle warm up even with a two-run lead. (As it turned out, Guillen was right not to trust Marte, who put the tying run aboard, but Ozzie just had one of those postseasons where everything goes right.) How about a fifth starter? Shawn Estes, Brian Anderson, and Terry Mulholland (how is he not yet retired?) are the names there. Ewww. No mention of bringing back Byung-Hyun Kim, which would be the smart move. Shawn Estes? What, was Jamey Wright just too good?
Finally, Red Sox assistant GM Josh Byrnes, who antagonized O’Dowd with his mishandling of the Kelly Shoppach/Larry Bigbie trade, is to be named general manager of the Rockies’ divisional rivals in Phoenix. Traditionally GMs don’t deal with teams in their own division unless they absolutely have to, so this move hopefully makes it possible for Colorado to deal with Boston again while not really eliminating another possible trade partner. Could Theo Epstein sign an extension then as his first move under his new contract resurrect the Shoppach swap? The Rockies could sure use a two-way catcher.
Game Four: Champs
I still don’t believe it’s really true. Truth is, I’m still adjusting to the Red Sox having won a championship. If the Cubs win next year, my fragile brain will not be able to handle it. I’m going to have to relocate to rural England and blog Liverpool football.
Congratulations to Kenny Williams, to Scott Reifert, to Jerry Reinsdorf. Forget everything bad I ever said about you, Jerry. Congratulations to Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye and Scott Podsednik and Tadahito Iguchi. Congrats to Carl Everett, reluctantly. Congratulations to the real playoff MVPs, the unflappable Sox rotation of Contreras, Buehrle, Garland, and Garcia. Congratulations to remarkable glove men Joe Crede, Aaron Rowand, and Juan Uribe. Congrats to role players Willie Harris, Geoff Blum, Timo Perez, and Chris Widger. Congrats to the bullpen: Bobby Jenks, Damaso Marte, Dustin Hermanson, Cliff Politte, Luis Vizcaino, and Neal Cotts (who my friends in Chicago Andra and Hannah think is very cute). Let’s not forget the ageless Orlando Hernandez, now. Or the guys who contributed during the regular season but couldn’t be fit on the playoff roster: Ross Gload, Brandon McCarthy, Joe Borchard, Jon Adkins. Special mention to Frank Thomas, who takes the Drew Bledsoe role of the superstar who watches from the bench as his team finally breaks through. (And I’d like to send a special shoutout to Shingo Takatsu, released at midseason but whom I’ve always really just liked.)
Congratulations to Ozzie Guillen. Rob Neyer might not like all the bunting, but how did the run that won the World Series score? Willie Harris got a pinch hit. Podsednik bunted him to second (on a tough pitch to bunt). Carl Everett hit behind the runner, moving Harris to third. Everett got him over, and Jermaine Dye got him in. Let’s not get carried away crediting Chicago’s "smart ball" prowess — the White Sox hit 18 home runs in the postseason to their opponents’ 9. But the fact is that the team found ways to win every kind of game there was (as they did in their interleague series against Colorado this year). Since Wednesday, September 28th Chicago is 16-1, including 11-1 in the playoffs. They might much resemble them, but the only other team to finish that strong is the 1999 Yankees.
Hey, here’s some trivia for you. Boston (1918) and Chicago AL (1917) are off the schneid as far as championships are concerned. Everybody and their mother (hi, Mom) knows the Cubs lead the world as far as World Series droughts go. Among teams who have won at least once before, who’s now second, third, and fourth? The answer to the last one is kind of surprising, I think. I’ll get to it in a bit.
So what about the Astros? Obviously, they were the inferior team in this year’s Series. Their "offense" during the last two games was so ugly that it kind of ruined the drama involved in four pretty close games. If not for injuries to the snakebitten Cardinals, this could have been a much more interesting Fall Classic. Of course, St. Louis got the last laugh. Albert Pujols’ home run, in a losing cause the most exciting moment of the 2005 postseason, extracted the last great start Roy Oswalt had in him and insured that Houston would have nothing left for the World Series. Will Houston be back in the mix next year? I don’t see where their offense is going to come from, and besides Oswalt there’s not much chance of their starting pitching being again as dominant. Chicago too will face stiff competition from Cleveland and the always competitive Twins. Anybody want to lay odds the Red Sox and Yankees won’t be back? Anaheim has talent aplenty and money to burn. Oakland’s rotation will be scalding next year. And there will be teams in both leagues — Milwaukee? Toronto? the Mets? Texas? Washington? — that will come out of nowhere.
What do the Rockies have to learn from Chicago? Well, you can build around a star first baseman (check), solid but not ludicrously expensive starters (in progress), a versatile bullpen (ditto), and stout defense (um…we’ll get back to you). Having a manager who emphasizes grinding skills is good, but hitting a ton of home runs is better. An offense-friendly home park is not a death sentence any more than a severe pitchers’ park guarantees success (hello, San Diego). Nothing but good things can come of trading your second-best RBI guy for a spray-hitting speedster and a middle reliever. Well, that last one might be more of an isolated coincidence than a recipe for success. Et tu, Carlos Lee?
So begins the offseason. I’m still coasting on the wave of playoff excitement now, but in a few days it’s going to hit like a bad hangover: no baseball that counts until April. Oh, man. On the other hand, the Rockies’ record as of now is 0-0. They’re on the same footing as everybody else. As of right now, anything is possible, and this should continue for at least six months and (say) three weeks. As much as I love October baseball, I might love March games even more. October is about how 29 teams aren’t quite good enough. Spring training is about 30 teams looking for reasons to believe. I’ll see you in Tucson. (Jeromy Burnitz, you need to sign with a Cactus League franchise, because I want to get your John Hancock on my home run ball.)
Hey, and your trivia answer: Cleveland (1948), San Francisco/New York (1954), Pittsburgh (1979). The rest: Philadelphia (80), St. Louis (82), Baltimore (83), Detroit (84), Kansas City (85), New York Mets (86), Los Angeles (88), Oakland (89), Cincinnati (90), Minnesota (91), Toronto (93), Bud Selig (94), Atlanta (95), New York Yankees (00), Arizona (01), Anaheim (02), Florida (03), Boston (04). And your 2005 World Champions are the Chicago White Sox. Yeah, saw that coming.
Game Three: Pretty Pathetic
OK, I realize this is hardly the biggest story from last night, but is anyone going to tell the Fox broadcasters that the first "D" in "Podsednik" is silent? No? I guess it’s not the worst thing about this series ending in a sweep (and doesn’t everyone think it will, now, with Freddy Garcia facing Brandon Backe in Game 4?) that McCarver and Buck won’t get a chance to correct their mistake. Also, Buck has Paul Konerko’s name wrong as well. It’s called a media guide, Joe. Embrace it.
The Astros’ offensive totals, from the ninth inning through the fourteenth: eight walks, one hit batsman, one reached on error, zero hits. That’s just really, really bad. Orlando Hernandez, Damaso Marte, Bobby Jenks, and Luis Vizcaino were hardly dominant for the White Sox. The Houston batters were just wildly flailing, clearly feeling the pressure. By all means the story should have been Jason Lane bailing out Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge earning redemption, and Chad Qualls being simply dominant. But instead, Geoff Blum — a former Astro, natch — is the hero and Ezequiel Astacio, who probably shouldn’t have even been on the roster, the goat. Not that the vast majority of Americans were still watching or for that matter had even tuned in in the first place.
Not that it will be of much consolation to Fox (who frankly, deserve worse, not only for Buck and McCarver but also for moving "Arrested Development" to Mondays and inexplicably continuing to air "American Dad"), but this will probably go down as the most dramatic four-game World Series of all time. I understand that’s kind of like being the world’s tallest midget, but for those few of you who have been hanging on every pitch, are you not entertained? The two team’s rather poor offenses and two differently entertaining managers have provided for close games with lots of twists and turns and weird decisions. How about Ozzie bringing in Mark Buehrle, ace closer? How about Garner’s vigorous chair toss? Geoff Blum, with all of one at-bat under his belt in the postseason until last night, was articulate and funny in his postgame press conference, admitting he was trying to be glib because he couldn’t think of a way to honestly express the things he was feeling after hitting a home run in extra innings in a World Series. Even the least-watched World Series of all time.
In Houston’s newspaper, Richard Justice and John Lopez concede defeat. ‘Round Chicago way, Jay Mariotti delicately congratulates Blum, noting how sharply Chicago GM Ken Williams was criticized for making him the team’s only trade deadline addition while avoiding mentioning the fact that it was he, Mariotti, who was the loudest critic. The Tribune is already concerned with returning the lineup for a title defense. And ESPN’s Chicago-based columnist Gene Wojciehowksi rips America a new one for tuning out the excellent drama of the series so far. I agree, Gene, but did you have to rip "Gilmore Girls?" I for one am very concerned about Rory and Lorelai’s estrangement.
At the Turn
No, I’m not flip-flopping. I just wanted to make two points: first, the World Series is moving to Houston, which could mean either the Astros’ salvation or Chicago’s final triumph; and second, I have a lot of cool Astros hats. As Paul Lukas writes, both of these teams have an illustrious history of uniform designs. Houston had the second-best home record in the majors. But guess who had the best overall road record? That’s right, the White Sox. An amusing controversy has broken out over whether Minute Maid Park’s roof will be open or closed for the Astros’ home games. It’s better than constant complaining about the umpires. Apparently some paramecium at Game 2 slapped Craig Biggio’s wife. Gee, I wonder why the White Sox have such a miserable national reputation?
Apparently the TV ratings from this series are on track to be the lowest ever; why exactly this is stumps me. If the White Sox sweep, it could be catastrophic indeed for Fox, not that they are much helping matters with their animated talking baseballs and brain-dead announcers. (I can’t believe I’m actually longing for the return of Lou Piniella, who’s at least entertainingly bad.) How come the whole country was excited for Boston’s first title since 1918 but no one seems to care about the possibility of Chicago’s first since 1917? All I can do is repeat the complaints that many smarter, more media-savvy observers have already made. Baseball is doing a crummy job marketing the best game in the universe. Their emphasis on hyping stars has really hurt the appeal of two balanced, hustling, team-oriented franchises in the World Series. And for the millionth time, baseball is meant to be played during the day. Why did the skies open in anger when the Cubs tried to play their first night game at Wrigley Field? Nature abhors night games. What’s more, how are parents around the U.S. supposed to introduce their kids to baseball if the games start half an hour before bedtime? By letting television dictate their scheduling, MLB is severely compromising the long-term growth of their sport. It’s the first thing that the real commissioner will address if we ever get one.
Roger Clemens will be available to start Game 5…unless he isn’t. There’s been some talk about how National League rules will favor Houston. But some disagree. Our favorite simulation at Baseball Prospectus lists Chicago’s chances of winning the Series at 81.5826%. Of course, they still have to play the games.
Game Two: Controversy Reigns
Plenty of intrigue and plot twists in the World Series so far. Scott Podsednik? Only in America! Boy, did Konerko crush that grand slam. First pitch swinging, it was out before I even had a chance to pick something clever to scream at it. Unfortunately, I think to qualify as truly great a World Series has to go six or seven games. With Roger Clemens in all likelihood being done for the season, this one may not make it so far.
Ultimately the difference in the series hasn’t been starting pitching (Houston’s has been slightly better, assuming you count Clemens’ Game One replacement Wandy Rodriguez as a starter), It’s been the bullpens. While Bobby Jenks blew a save opportunity in Game Two, the unheralded Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts retired every guy they faced. For the Astros, Dan Wheeler’s control has been off, and Chad Qualls and Brad Lidge are trying to blow away guys and giving up colossal home runs. Although the scores have been slightly higher than expected, the series has thus far been the Strat-O-Matic fan’s paradise many of us expected. Phil Garner scored a coup with his decision to pinch-hit Jose Vizcaino in the top of the ninth. Ozzie Guillen had guys moving all game. His gambits didn’t always work. Carl Everett got caught stealing after he singled immediately following Konerko’s four-run home run. Tadahito Iguchi was picked off first once, and Jermaine Dye would have been if not for a bad throw. Sometimes the White Sox’s bunting and running and scrambling seems a little bit like sound and fury signifying nothing — I mean, this is a team that lives and dies by the home run. But it does rattle a pitcher a little. Was Lidge so worried about what might happen if Podsednik singled that he let Scotty homer?
Before Paul Konerko hit the grand slam, Jermaine Dye was awarded first base on a pitch that clearly hit his bat and not his hand or wrist. Some commentators are making a much bigger deal of this than I think is warranted. It was a three-ball count anyway, and it was a terrible pitch. Wheeler could just as well have walked him on the next pitch. Or maybe Dye might have grounded out to short, you never know. But can you imagine stopping the action dead in the middle of an at-bat for the umpires to go check the instant replay? That wouldn’t be fair to the pitcher or the batter. I do think that umpires need to be encouraged to consult with their colleagues more often, and that MLB should be forthright about when a mistake has clearly been made. But instant replay? Not in my baseball.
Who Wants These Guys?
Dave Krieger has kind of a bizarre column up on the Rocky Mountain News site. I think he’s trying to ridicule the Colorado organization for not spending money hand over fist (since that’s worked so well for them in the past), but by going through the list of available free agents and dismissing them all as too expensive, he proves a point opposite to the one he’s trying to make. There’s really nobody on the free agent scene this year worth the dough they’re going to get. And since the big money teams are all going to be fighting over what second-rate talent is available, the cost for guys like A.J. Burnett or Johnny Damon is going to be outrageous.
Krieger’s claim that Hunter would "hit 30 points higher in front of Todd Helton" is totally unsubstantiated. Hunter would hit for a higher average with the Rockies…because of Coors. But he’s injury prone and was never that great offensively. The Yankees are going to trade for him and give him an outlandish extension, making the same mistake they made with Bernie Williams. Oh, those wacky Yankees.
And listen to some of these other names! Neifi Perez? Brad Ausmus? Eric Young? Jeff Cirillo? These are the exact kind of guys budget-conscious teams like the Rockies have no business getting involved with. Why pay two or three million dollars for Neifi Perez when Omar Quintanilla will do the same thing for the minimum? How is Jeff Cirillo better than Garrett Atkins? Does Brad Ausmus have magical powers of hypnotism that have convinced the entire world he’s not a mediocre player who owes his career longevity basically to inertia? The Rockies wasted money on Dustan Mohr and Desi Relaford last year, guys who took playing time away from the young players we need to evaluate and played so badly in the first half we couldn’t even flip them for interesting prospects at the deadline.
Oddly, Krieger fails to mention the one guy who does make a certain amount of sense for Colorado — erstwhile Padres backstop Ramon Hernandez. Hernandez won’t come cheap, but we’re not talking Ivan Rodriguez money here, despite the fact that Hernandez is now better both offensively and defensively than Pudge. A Danny Ardoin/Hernandez platoon would not be bad at all, assuming Dan O’Dowd can’t pry white whale Kelly Shoppach away from Boston. Ardoin could catch the younger pitchers and flaunt his vaunted game-calling and defensive skills. Hernandez could bring his bat into the games started by the vets. And J.D. Closser? Well, the dude never really got a chance. It’s a cold world.
If the Rockies could somehow get a superstar — a Vlad Guerrero or a Manny Ramirez or a Miguel Cabrera — and demurred because the cost was too great, now that would be cheap. Paying $3 or $4 million for a .250-hiting infielder when there’s half a dozen guys in the farm system who can do the same thing for essentially free is a good way to run an organization into the ground. Neifi Perez! That’ll be the day.
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